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    Eventi Dipartimento
    18.02.2019 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm


    *** "Big Data or Models? The lesson from weather forecasting" (LE CONFERENZE DEL CENTRO LINCEO INTERDISCIPLINARE “BENIAMINO SEGRE” ) ***



    Nell'ambito delle Conferenze del Centro Linceo Interdisciplinare “B. SEGRE”, in collaborazione con l'Università degli Studi della Campania "L. Vanvitelli", il Professore Angelo Vulpiani del Dipartimento di Fisica della Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, lunedì 18 febbraio, alle ore 15:00, nell’Aula Magna del Polo Scientifico di via Vivaldi della Università degli Studi della Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli" terrà il seguente seminario:
    "Big Data or Models? The lesson from weather forecasting"


    ABSTRACT: The idea of predicting the future from the knowledge of the past is quite natural, even when dealing with systems whose equations of motion are not known.

    This long-standing issue is revisited in the light of modern ergodic theory of dynamical systems and   becomes particularly interesting from a pedagogical perspective due to its close link with Poincare’s recurrence.  
    Using such a connection, a very general result of ergodic theory (Kac’s lemma) can be used to establish the intrinsic limitations to the possibility of predicting the future from the past. In spite of a naive expectation, predictability is hindered more by the effective number of degrees of freedom of a system than by the presence of chaos.
    If the effective number of degrees of freedom becomes large enough, whether the system is chaotic or not, predictions turn out to be practically impossible.
    The discussion of these issues is illustrated with the help of the numerical study of simple models.
    Proponente: Eugenio Lippiello  

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